Description du cours

Intitulé de l'Unité d'Enseignement

International Economics and Business Cycles

Code de l'Unité d'Enseignement

22EC010

Année académique

2019 - 2020

Cycle

MASTER

Nombre de crédits

5

Nombre heures

60

Quadrimestre

1

Pondération

Site

Anjou

Langue d'enseignement

Français

Enseignant responsable

OST Christian

Objectifs et contribution de l'Unité d'Enseignement au programme

This course aims to explain fluctuations in the aggregate economic activity and advanced international trade mechanisms, with the implications on public and private sectors. It aims also to describe the economic context of the corporate sector, as it indicates relevant connections between macroeconomic topics and business related decision-making.

The main objective is to help participants in understanding how to cope with economic data and information available through the press, as in alternative sources of documentation. Students are expected to be able of reading economic documents, understanding the issues, dealing and discussing the main topics, the pros and cons, forecasting or building scenarios, and bringing material into the decision-making process.

Prérequis et corequis

Basic economics and macroeconomics are prerequisites. The understanding of macro-economics is strongly recommended both in terms of theory and applied tools. The course is given in English, and participants are required to have an ability to read, to listen, and to write (written evaluation) in English. A short glossary is provided.

Description du contenu

The course is divided into six topics (these are not supposed to be addressed in a sequential timing. Part 1 gives basic material for the introduction to business cycles. It covers short, medium cycles, long-wave theory, statistical tools to measure business cycle indicators, and the main sources available online. Part 2 describes real business cycles through different components of aggregate demand on domestic level: private consumption, investment, and public expenditures. Part 3 describes real business cycles through its international components: exports, imports, trade balance. It also highlights competitiveness and business cycle-related factors from international perspective. Part 4 covers macroeconomic policies (inflation and unemployment, debt issues), and their relative impact on the business cycle.
Part 5 takes into consideration monetary and financial business cycles: demand for money, money supply, financial markets, stock exchange (including derivatives and in-depth analysis of the sub-prime crisis of 2008). Part 6 describes how the corporate sector is impacted by business cycle. This entails examples of companies facing business cycle changes, how they react, and how strategic analysis is connected to business cycle analysis.

Méthodes pédagogiques

The course takes place in the curriculum of the Master 1 and 2 programs, and is open to Erasmus students and special programs. Although most of the material will be available on ICHEC-Moodle, attendance and active participation is strongly recommended. Information will be provided about requested or recommended readings.

Topics are addressed in the main lectures, plus additional sessions for special topics, or questions and answers, given time availability. Lectures are divided into two parts: theoretical concepts, and readings from current business cycle analysis (based on business cycle analysis, corporate reports, economic and financial magazines).

Power-point material, PDF-documents and miscellaneous material will be available on ICHEC-Moodle. Theoretical PPT-files will always be uploaded before lectures. Additional PPT-files related to practical examples can be added along the course.

More personal readings of business cycle cases in financial newspapers and magazines are strongly recommended (Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, The Economist, TIME Magazine). Students will therefore be given opportunities to recap course content, and to test their individual understanding.

The main document that students are required to read is the European Economic Forecast from the European Commission. The lectures will be based on the two last issues: Spring 2019 and Summer 2019. The next issue (Autumn 2019) will be released on November, and can be exploited for exam questions in January and September 2020.

Occasionally, indicative list of questions will be communicated as additional material to prepare final examination.

Mode d'évaluation

Students are evaluated on their ability to explain theoretical concepts, to describe, analyse and forecast business cycle information, and apply this to corporate management and strategy.

There is no formal mid-term evaluation, although participants will fairly be able to make a personal assessment of their understanding of the course throughout the semester. Final evaluation will be based on a written test. Given the sanitary crisis and the remote process of evaluation, the written exam includes an individual work based on the theoretical slides and the EEF Spring issue, plus an essay written on the current and projected business cycle, and based of latest sources of data (See on Moodle).

Références bibliographiques

Power-point material, PDF-documents and miscellaneous material will be available on ICHEC-Moodle. Theoretical PPT-files will always be uploaded before lectures. Additional PPT-files related to practical examples can be added along the course.

More personal readings of business cycle cases in financial newspapers and magazines are strongly recommended (Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, The Economist, TIME Magazine). Students will therefore be given opportunities to recap course content, and to test their individual understanding.

The main document that students are required to read is the European Economic Forecast from the European Commission. The lectures will be based on the two last issues: Spring 2019 and Summer 2019. The next issue (Autumn 2019) will be released on November, and can be exploited for exam questions in January and September 2020.

Academic textbooks:

Todd A. Knoop 2015 Business Cycle Economics
Geoffrey H. Moore 1983 Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd ed.

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson,ed 1993 Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting
Last two available on http://www.nber.org/booksbyseries/SBC.html7

(In French),
Arnaud Bilek, Alain Henriot 2011 Analyse Conjoncturelle pour l’Entreprise, Ouvertures Economiques, De Boeck Université.